Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Frazier hit sacrifice fly to left, Reynolds scored.2–5
- 6J. Sánchez grounded out to first, Wagaman scored, Norby to second.2–4
- 6Hernández homered to center (414 feet).1–4
- 5McCutchen homered to left center (405 feet), Hayes scored and Cruz scored.0–4
- 2Davis scored on throwing error by catcher Fortes, Hayes stole second.0–1
- 2Davis scored on throwing error by catcher Fortes, Hayes stole second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 59%
- ML MIA +135 / PIT -160
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 57.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +9 | MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +49 Elo | PIT 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.014th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 3011–20 | Road vs home | 18–1922nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15122nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301443 | Elo rating | 146525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–33 | 30–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 4–17 |
| Underdog | 31–21 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 35–30 | 27–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 9–11 PIT in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.