Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-4
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8McCutchen singled to right, Cruz scored.1–2
- 3Marchán doubled to right, Marsh scored on throwing error by second baseman N. Gonzales.1–1
- 2Triolo doubled to center, Hayes scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML PHI +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 44.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.1 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +15 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +42 Elo | PHI 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.115th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 16–1823rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301527 | Elo rating | 146225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–34 | 29–36 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–28 | 3–15 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 29–35 | 26–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–9 PIT in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.