Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Davis homered to center (401 feet).1–2
- 1McCutchen singled to center, N. Gonzales scored.1–1
- 1Schwarber homered to left center (414 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML PHI -140 / PIT +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -128
- PIT +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −1 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +54 Elo | PHI 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.216th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 15–1825th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301528 | Elo rating | 146125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–33 | 28–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–27 | 3–15 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 25–21 |
| Overs–unders | 29–34 | 26–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–8 PIT in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.