Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Alan RangelPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9N. Gonzales hit sacrifice fly to left, Frazier scored.4–5
- 4Davis homered to left (402 feet), Canario scored.4–4
- 4Turner singled to center, Realmuto scored and Sosa scored, Stott to second.4–2
- 3Reynolds homered to left (399 feet).2–2
- 3Bohm singled to left, Turner scored.2–1
- 1Reynolds singled to right, N. Gonzales scored.1–1
- 1Castellanos grounded out to shortstop, Turner scored, Bohm to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML PHI -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +10 | PHI: Joe Ross: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +30 Elo | PHI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 14–1825th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15133rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301529 | Elo rating | 146025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–32 | 27–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 3–15 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 28–34 | 25–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–7 PIT in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.