Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Horwitz grounded out to first, McCutchen scored, Reynolds to second.3–10
- 8Norby doubled to right, Stowers scored.3–9
- 7Sullivan singled to right, Horwitz scored, Frazier to second, N. Gonzales to third.2–9
- 6Sullivan hit sacrifice fly to center, Hayes scored.2–8
- 6Hayes reached on bunt single to third, N. Gonzales scored on throwing error by third baseman Norby and Frazier scored on throwing error by right fielder J. Sánchez, Hayes to third.2–7
- 6Frazier singled to center, Horwitz scored, N. Gonzales to second.2–5
- 5J. Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to left, Hernández scored.2–4
- 3Reynolds tripled to center, Triolo scored, Cruz scored and McCutchen scored.1–4
- 3McCutchen reached on infield single to shortstop, Sullivan scored, Cruz to second, Triolo to third.1–1
- 2Lopez homered to left (408 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML MIA +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −3 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +18 Elo | PIT 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–19 | Road vs home | 17–1821st of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15132nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301445 | Elo rating | 146325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–32 | 29–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 3–16 |
| Underdog | 30–20 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 34–29 | 26–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 8–10 PIT in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.