Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Nick FortesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cruz homered to right center (416 feet).3–2
- 8Hayes homered to left center (413 feet).3–1
- 4Wagaman singled to center, Lopez scored on error, Wagaman safe at second on fielding error by catcher Davis.3–0
- 3Fortes homered to left (397 feet), Myers scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML MIA +120 / PIT -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PIT -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −12 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +39 Elo | PIT 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–20 | Road vs home | 18–1820th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15122nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301442 | Elo rating | 146625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–33 | 30–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 4–16 |
| Underdog | 30–21 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 35–29 | 27–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 8–11 PIT in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.