Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bell grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wood scored, García Jr. out at second.11–9
- 8Lowe grounded out to shortstop, Abrams scored, Wood to second.11–8
- 8Norby grounded into fielder's choice to third, Lopez scored, Wagaman out at second.11–7
- 8Wagaman singled to right, Edwards scored and Ramírez scored, Lopez to third.10–7
- 7Ruiz singled to center, Bell scored, Call to third.8–7
- 7Call singled to center, García Jr. scored, Bell to second.8–6
- 7Lowe singled to center, Wood scored.8–5
- 7Wood doubled to right, Abrams scored and Hassell III scored.8–4
- 5Edwards reached on infield single to third, Hernández scored, Edwards out stretching at second, Fortes to third.8–2
- 5Fortes singled to center, Stowers scored, Hernández to third.7–2
- 3Wood homered to center (451 feet), Abrams scored.6–2
- 3Myers doubled to center, Norby scored and Wagaman scored.6–0
- 3Wagaman doubled to right, Lopez scored.4–0
- 3Ramírez homered to left (447 feet).3–0
- 2Fortes hit sacrifice fly to center, Myers scored.2–0
- 1Ramírez homered to left (408 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML MIA -105 / WSH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 54.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −2 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +32 Elo | WSH 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 26th of 3011–21 | Road vs home | 15–1826th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15065th of 30 |
| 27th of 301441 | Elo rating | 146525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–34 | 37–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 31–22 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 35–31 | 31–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 15–14 WSH in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 29.