Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hassell III safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Wagaman, García Jr. safe at third, Bell scored on error.4–3
- 9Call scored on Bender wild pitch, Bell to second on wild pitch by Bender.4–2
- 9Call scored on Bender wild pitch, Bell to second on wild pitch by Bender.4–2
- 8Stowers scored on error, Sanoja safe at first on fielding error by second baseman García Jr., Myers safe at third on error.4–1
- 7J. Sánchez homered to right (415 feet).3–1
- 6Wagaman singled to right, Hicks scored, Lopez to second.2–1
- 3Hicks singled to center, J. Sánchez scored.1–1
- 2Adams walked, Lowe scored, Hassell III to second, Call to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML MIA +110 / WSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 54.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +1 | MIA: Cade Gibson (no track record yet) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +33 Elo | WSH 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 25th of 3012–21 | Road vs home | 15–1926th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15065th of 30 |
| 27th of 301443 | Elo rating | 146325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–34 | 37–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 32–22 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 36–31 | 32–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 16–14 WSH in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 30.