Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Wood homered to center (428 feet), Adams scored.3–4
- 11Toglia singled to center, McMahon scored.3–2
- 5Moniak singled to right, Beck scored.2–2
- 5Beck doubled to left, Arcia scored.1–2
- 4Wood homered to center (403 feet), Abrams scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 61%
- ML COL +145 / WSH -175
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 59.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -156
- COL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 5.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +68 Elo | WSH 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 29th of 3010–30 | Road vs home | 15–2428th of 30 |
| 1st of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 30th of 301397 | Elo rating | 145326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–40 | 37–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–15 |
| Underdog | 32–37 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 32–42 | 34–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 9–10 WSH in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.