Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 9Doyle singled to center, Goodman scored.1–4
- 5Riley singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.0–4
- 2Acuña Jr. homered to left (410 feet), Allen scored.0–3
- 1Olson singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Riley to second, Verdugo to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 75%
- ML COL +280 / ATL -350
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 70.1%, market 74.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -296
- COL +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 5.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −1 | COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +148 Elo | ATL 70.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 76.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 76.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 74.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 3.911th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.0 | Margin | +0.316th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–29 | Road vs home | 18–1415th of 30 |
| 1st of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 30th of 301386 | Elo rating | 152310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–39 | 30–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 19–30 |
| Underdog | 28–36 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 29–40 | 29–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–13 ATL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.