Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- German MarquezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ozuna hit sacrifice fly to right, Olson scored.4–12
- 8Olson singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored, White scored and Riley scored on throwing error by shortstop Arcia, Olson to third.4–11
- 8Allen hit sacrifice fly to center, Harris II scored.4–8
- 7Ozuna homered to left center (407 feet), Verdugo scored and Olson scored.4–7
- 6Harris II homered to right center (394 feet), Olson scored and Murphy scored.4–4
- 4McMahon singled to right, Freeman scored, Goodman to second, Estrada to third.4–1
- 4Goodman singled to left, Hiura scored, Estrada to second, Freeman to third.3–1
- 1Olson hit sacrifice fly to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Verdugo to second.2–1
- 1McMahon homered to center (441 feet), Goodman scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 76%
- ML COL +300 / ATL -385
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 70.2%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -318
- COL +318 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 5.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1387 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −5 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +149 Elo | ATL 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 73.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 72.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.0 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–28 | Road vs home | 17–1416th of 30 |
| 1st of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 15057th of 30 |
| 30th of 301387 | Elo rating | 152110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–38 | 29–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 18–30 |
| Underdog | 28–35 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 28–40 | 28–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–12 ATL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.