Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Braxton FulfordBatting2-2, 5 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 15 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fulford tripled to first, Estrada scored, Doyle scored and Ritter scored.10–1
- 7Beck scored on a disengagement violation, Freeman to second on a disengagement violation.7–1
- 7Beck scored on a disengagement violation, Freeman to second on a disengagement violation.7–1
- 7Freeman singled to right, Fulford scored, Beck to third.6–1
- 7Beck doubled to left, Arcia scored and Ritter scored, Fulford to third.5–1
- 7Fulford walked, Doyle scored, Ritter to second, Arcia to third.3–1
- 7McMahon homered to center (429 feet).2–1
- 6Ozuna singled to right, Riley scored, Olson to second.1–1
- 3Fulford hit sacrifice fly to left, Ritter scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 75%
- ML COL +285 / ATL -360
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 69.5%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -301
- COL +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 5.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −11 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +143 Elo | ATL 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 72.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 72.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.0 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–30 | Road vs home | 19–1415th of 30 |
| 1st of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 30th of 301384 | Elo rating | 152410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–40 | 31–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 28–37 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 29–41 | 29–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–14 ATL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 18.