Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- German MarquezPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Beck homered to left center (398 feet).3–1
- 7Wood doubled to right, Abrams scored.2–1
- 7Ritter hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Arcia scored.2–0
- 6Toglia homered to left center (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 58%
- ML COL +130 / WSH -155
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 61.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -140
- COL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.4 – 5.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −10 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +79 Elo | WSH 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 29th of 309–30 | Road vs home | 15–2328th of 30 |
| 1st of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 30th of 301395 | Elo rating | 145525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–40 | 37–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–14 |
| Underdog | 31–37 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 32–41 | 34–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 8–10 WSH in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.