Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9House singled to center, Lowe scored.10–6
- 9García Jr. homered to right center (411 feet), Abrams scored.10–5
- 9Abrams singled to center, Young scored.10–3
- 8Lowe homered to left (356 feet).10–2
- 8Moniak homered to left center (382 feet).10–1
- 7Hilliard homered to right (434 feet).9–1
- 7Toglia homered to right (364 feet).8–1
- 7McMahon homered to right center (396 feet).7–1
- 7Goodman homered to left (407 feet), Moniak scored and Freeman scored.6–1
- 4Toglia homered to center (415 feet), Doyle scored.3–1
- 2Estrada homered to right center (390 feet).1–1
- 1García Jr. scored on Senzatela wild pitch.0–1
- 1García Jr. scored on Senzatela wild pitch.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 64%
- ML COL +165 / WSH -200
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 63.0%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -177
- COL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −1 | COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +93 Elo | WSH 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.8 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 29th of 308–30 | Road vs home | 15–2228th of 30 |
| 1st of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 30th of 301392 | Elo rating | 145825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–40 | 37–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–13 |
| Underdog | 30–37 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 31–41 | 33–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–10 WSH in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.