Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Carson PalmquistPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak homered to right (368 feet), Hilliard scored.6–4
- 9Goodman homered to center (400 feet).4–4
- 5Wood homered to left (373 feet), Call scored.3–4
- 5Lile homered to right (412 feet).3–2
- 5Toglia singled to center, Moniak scored.3–1
- 4Rosario hit sacrifice fly to left, Abrams scored.2–1
- 1Goodman homered to left center (393 feet), Freeman scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 60%
- ML COL +140 / WSH -165
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 62.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1390 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | COL: Carson Palmquist: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +87 Elo | WSH 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.9 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–30 | Road vs home | 15–2127th of 30 |
| 1st of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 30th of 301390 | Elo rating | 146025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–40 | 37–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 29–37 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 30–41 | 32–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–10 WSH in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.