Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9T. Hernández homered to right (350 feet).7–3
- 8Ruiz hit sacrifice fly to left, Bell scored.7–2
- 8Lowe homered to center (395 feet).6–2
- 7Abrams homered to center (401 feet), Ruiz scored.5–2
- 6Smith homered to center (402 feet).3–2
- 6Lowe homered to left (374 feet).3–1
- 5Pages homered to left center (383 feet).2–1
- 4García Jr. homered to center (414 feet).2–0
- 4Wood homered to center (451 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 70%
- ML WSH +225 / LAD -275
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.8%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -238
- WSH +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 5.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +129 Elo | LAD 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 71.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3015–21 | Road vs home | 29–132nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 26th of 301453 | Elo rating | 15611st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–38 | 35–42 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–16 | 26–37 |
| Underdog | 37–22 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 35–41 | 46–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–10 LAD in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.