Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tatis Jr. homered to center (435 feet), Sheets scored and Iglesias scored.10–6
- 9Bell homered to left center (393 feet).10–3
- 8Wood homered to right (361 feet), Lile scored and Abrams scored.9–3
- 7Cronenworth homered to center (412 feet).6–3
- 6Sheets singled to left, Merrill scored, Bogaerts to second.6–2
- 5Bell singled to left, Wood scored, Lowe to second, García Jr. to third.6–1
- 5García Jr. singled to center, Abrams scored, Wood to second.5–1
- 4Machado homered to center (410 feet).4–1
- 4House singled to center, Lowe scored.4–0
- 4Bell hit sacrifice fly to center, García Jr. scored, Lowe to second.3–0
- 4Lowe singled to left, Wood scored, García Jr. to third.2–0
- 4Wood singled to left, Abrams scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 62%
- ML WSH +155 / SD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- SD: Elo 63.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -166
- WSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +99 Elo | SD 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 23–138th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 26th of 301455 | Elo rating | 15299th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–39 | 45–32 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–16 | 20–19 |
| Underdog | 38–23 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 37–41 | 33–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–9 SD in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.