Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Marcelo MayerBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Angels- Christian MooreBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Moore homered to center (392 feet), Kingery scored.2–3
- 10Mayer singled to center, Rafaela scored.2–1
- 8Moore homered to left (387 feet).1–1
- 3Eaton hit sacrifice fly to right, Mayer scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 60%
- ML BOS -165 / LAA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 3.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −4 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +47 Elo | BOS 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 17–1824th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Elo rating | 145726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–39 | 39–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–27 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 24–12 | 34–25 |
| Overs–unders | 38–42 | 42–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–9 LAA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.