Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8d'Arnaud singled to left, Neto scored and Trout scored, Ward to second.5–9
- 8Ward walked, Rengifo scored, Trout to second, Neto to third.5–7
- 8Moore hit sacrifice fly to right, Wade Jr. scored, Rengifo to second.5–6
- 6Story homered to left (387 feet).5–5
- 4Wong hit sacrifice fly to left, Rafaela scored.4–5
- 1Neto hit by pitch, Wade Jr. scored, Moore to second, Rengifo to third.3–5
- 1Moore walked, Adell scored, Rengifo to second, Wade Jr. to third.3–4
- 1Rengifo walked, Ward scored, Wade Jr. to second, Adell to third.3–3
- 1Adell singled to left, Trout scored, Ward to second.3–2
- 1Neto homered to center (412 feet).3–1
- 1Rafaela singled to left, Story scored.3–0
- 1Abreu singled to left, Anthony scored and Toro scored, Abreu out stretching at second, Story to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BOS -120 / LAA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +25 Elo | BOS 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 19th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 16–1825th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 17th of 301504 | Elo rating | 145426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–38 | 38–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–26 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 24–12 | 33–25 |
| Overs–unders | 37–42 | 41–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–8 LAA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.