Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Nate EatonBatting1-1
- Walker BuehlerPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting3-4, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Polanco hit sacrifice fly to left, Raleigh scored.0–8
- 4Raleigh doubled to right, Crawford scored and Young scored.0–7
- 2Raleigh homered to right (370 feet), Young scored, Crawford scored and Rodríguez scored.0–5
- 2Young doubled to center, Tellez scored, Williamson thrown out at home.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML BOS +125 / SEA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -135
- BOS +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +18 Elo | SEA 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.312th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 19–1821st of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 14th of 301507 | Elo rating | 150617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–36 | 29–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 16–26 | 11–33 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 34–40 | 38–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–8 SEA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.