Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting3-3
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Polanco singled to center, Mastrobuoni scored, Raleigh to second, Crawford to third.3–4
- 9Moore scored on Clase wild pitch, Crawford to second on wild pitch by Clase, Mastrobuoni to third on wild pitch by Clase.3–3
- 9Moore scored on Clase wild pitch, Crawford to second on wild pitch by Clase, Mastrobuoni to third on wild pitch by Clase.3–3
- 6Schneemann scored on Speier wild pitch, Jones to third on wild pitch by Speier.3–2
- 6Schneemann scored on Speier wild pitch, Jones to third on wild pitch by Speier.3–2
- 5Ramírez homered to right (379 feet).2–2
- 4Jones doubled to center, Santana scored, Schneemann to third.1–2
- 1Polanco hit sacrifice fly to center, Rodríguez scored.0–2
- 1Raleigh doubled to right, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML CLE +120 / SEA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- CLE +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −3 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +4 Elo | SEA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 17–1722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 14th of 301505 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–37 | 28–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 10–18 | 10–31 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 32–36 | 37–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–6 SEA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.