Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Polanco homered to left (368 feet).2–7
- 7Young doubled to left, Canzone scored, Williamson to third.2–6
- 7Canzone singled to right, Polanco scored and Arozarena scored.2–5
- 7Arozarena singled to left, Raleigh scored, Polanco to third.2–3
- 4Crawford singled to left, Williamson scored.2–2
- 4Tellez homered to right (399 feet).2–1
- 3Kwan homered to right center (391 feet).2–0
- 3Jones homered to center (401 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML CLE -105 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.7 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +6 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +19 Elo | SEA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.312th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 11th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 16–1723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Elo rating | 150119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–36 | 27–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 0–10 |
| Favorite | 10–18 | 9–31 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 31–36 | 36–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–5 SEA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.