Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon WalterPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7O'Hoppe homered to left center (394 feet), Ward scored.1–9
- 4Schanuel singled to right, Neto scored.1–7
- 4Walker singled to left, Altuve scored.1–6
- 3O'Hoppe homered to center (396 feet), Ward scored.0–6
- 3Ward doubled to right, Trout scored and Schanuel scored.0–4
- 2Rengifo homered to left (408 feet), Adell scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 53%
- ML HOU +105 / LAA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- LAA: Elo 41.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +7 | HOU: Brandon Walter: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +63 Elo | HOU 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 15–1724th of 30 |
| 28th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 6th of 301534 | Elo rating | 145126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–38 | 37–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–30 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 33–25 |
| Overs–unders | 31–45 | 39–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 21–9 LAA in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 30.