Houston Astros at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kurtz homered to right center (447 feet), Rooker scored.1–3
- 5Bleday homered to right center (408 feet).1–1
- 1Altuve homered to left (439 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML HOU -115 / ATH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- ATH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 4.7 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +13 | HOU: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATH: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +52 Elo | HOU 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 12–2329th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 30 |
| 6th of 301533 | Elo rating | 143828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–35 | 36–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 30–25 |
| Overs–unders | 28–43 | 43–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 20–8 ATH in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 28.
