Houston Astros at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schuemann singled to right, Wynns scored.11–4
- 9Kurtz homered to center (413 feet).11–3
- 9Peña grounded out to second, Meyers scored, Dubón to second.11–2
- 9Meyers doubled to left, Smith scored.10–2
- 6Kurtz singled to right, Urías scored, Muncy to second.9–2
- 6Caratini homered to left (408 feet), Walker scored and Smith scored.9–1
- 6Smith doubled to left, Diaz scored, Walker to third.6–1
- 6Altuve homered to left center (432 feet), Peña scored and Paredes scored.5–1
- 4Peña singled to right, Caratini scored, Dubón to second, Meyers to third.2–1
- 3Dubón homered to left center (400 feet).1–1
- 2Wynns singled to center, Kurtz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 62%
- ML HOU -180 / ATH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -161
- ATH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.3 – 4.2 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −6 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +102 Elo | HOU 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.215th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 17th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 13–2429th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301533 | Elo rating | 143828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–36 | 37–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–28 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders | 29–44 | 44–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 21–9 ATH in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 30.
