Houston Astros at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Cam SmithBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jason AlexanderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Gio UrshelaBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meyers scored, Smith to third on passed ball by Wynns.13–3
- 8Meyers scored, Smith to third on passed ball by Wynns.13–3
- 8Smith doubled to right, Walker scored, Meyers to third.12–3
- 7Urías grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Urshela scored, Wynns out at second.11–3
- 7Wynns safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Paredes, Kurtz scored, Urshela safe at third.11–2
- 7Urshela singled to center, Rooker scored, Kurtz to third.11–1
- 7Hummel homered to left center (431 feet), Dubón scored.11–0
- 5Paredes singled to left, Dubón scored and Smith scored, Peña to third.9–0
- 5Walker homered to left center (382 feet), Diaz scored.7–0
- 4Dubón homered to left (385 feet).5–0
- 4Smith homered to left center (431 feet).4–0
- 2Smith homered to center (415 feet).3–0
- 1Meyers singled to center, Paredes scored and Peña scored, Walker to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML HOU -120 / ATH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 60.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- ATH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.3 – 5.2 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −5 | HOU: Jason Alexander (no track record yet) · ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +73 Elo | HOU 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 20th of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 13–2329th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 30 |
| 7th of 301531 | Elo rating | 144028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–36 | 37–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 30–25 |
| Overs–unders | 28–44 | 43–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 20–9 ATH in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 29.
