Houston Astros at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Victor CaratiniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kurtz homered to center (416 feet), Soderstrom scored.4–6
- 8Caratini homered to right center (380 feet), Walker scored and Meyers scored.4–4
- 7Wilson homered to left (387 feet).1–4
- 6MacIver grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Muncy scored on throwing error by second baseman Altuve, MacIver to first on throwing error by second baseman Altuve, Kurtz out at second.1–3
- 5Peña grounded out to shortstop, Meyers scored.1–2
- 2Butler homered to right center (409 feet).0–2
- 2MacIver homered to center (423 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML HOU -145 / ATH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 59.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- ATH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.0 – 4.5 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +2 | HOU: Colton Gordon: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +68 Elo | HOU 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 13–2529th of 30 |
| 26th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301536 | Elo rating | 143628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–36 | 37–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–28 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders | 30–44 | 45–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 22–9 ATH in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 31.
