Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Dubón scored on Strickland wild pitch, Peña to second on wild pitch by Strickland.3–2
- 10Dubón scored on Strickland wild pitch, Peña to second on wild pitch by Strickland.3–2
- 7Moore homered to center (411 feet).2–2
- 4Adell homered to center (426 feet).2–1
- 1Paredes homered to left (370 feet).2–0
- 1Peña homered to center (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 61%
- ML HOU -175 / LAA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -156
- LAA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 3.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −4 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +84 Elo | HOU 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 15–1624th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 6th of 301534 | Elo rating | 145226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–37 | 36–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–29 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders | 31–44 | 39–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 20–9 LAA in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 29.