Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting3-4
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Story scored on throwing error by catcher Knizner, Eaton stole second.2–3
- 9Story scored on throwing error by catcher Knizner, Eaton stole second.2–3
- 9Abreu singled to right, Anthony scored, Story to third.1–3
- 3Devers homered to left (370 feet), Knizner scored.0–3
- 1Ramos homered to center (400 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 53%
- ML BOS +105 / SF -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- SF: Elo 52.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −9 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +20 Elo | SF 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 14th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 23–149th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 16th of 301507 | Elo rating | 151313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–37 | 33–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–26 | 12–33 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 36–41 | 36–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–3 SF in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.