Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Abreu singled to right, Toro scored.7–5
- 6Rafaela homered to center (424 feet).6–5
- 5Flores singled to center, Ramos scored, Flores out at second on runner's fielder's choice.5–5
- 5Toro safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Koss, Anthony scored.5–4
- 5Anthony singled to center, Duran scored, Anthony to second.4–4
- 4Koss grounded into double play, third to second to first, Adames scored, Bailey out at second, Schmitt to third.3–4
- 4Rafaela singled to left, Abreu scored.3–3
- 3Hamilton homered to center (411 feet), Rafaela scored.2–3
- 2Yastrzemski reached on infield single to pitcher, Schmitt scored.0–3
- 2Koss grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Adames scored, Bailey out at second, Schmitt to third.0–2
- 1Yastrzemski scored on error, Flores safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Hamilton.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML BOS +100 / SF -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- SF: Elo 52.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −8 | BOS: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +19 Elo | SF 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 23–137th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 151513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–37 | 33–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–26 | 12–32 |
| Underdog | 22–11 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 35–41 | 35–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–3 SF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.