Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Neto homered to left (375 feet).8–7
- 7Schanuel singled to left, Newman scored, Rengifo to second.8–6
- 6Meyers hit sacrifice fly to right, Peña scored.8–5
- 6Peña doubled to left, Guillorme scored, Peña to third.7–5
- 6Dubón homered to left center (402 feet), Hummel scored.6–5
- 5Schanuel homered to right (390 feet), Wade Jr. scored and Moore scored.4–5
- 5Walker doubled to center, Smith scored.4–2
- 5Meyers scored on error, Smith safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Rengifo.3–2
- 5Peña homered to left center (423 feet).2–2
- 5Dubón homered to left (378 feet).1–2
- 4O'Hoppe homered to left (373 feet), Ward scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 50%
- ML HOU -110 / LAA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- LAA: Elo 44.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAA -100
- HOU -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +6 | HOU: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +41 Elo | HOU 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 16–1724th of 30 |
| 28th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 8th of 301530 | Elo rating | 145526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–39 | 38–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–30 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 33–25 |
| Overs–unders | 32–45 | 40–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 21–10 LAA in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 31.