Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Adames homered to left (402 feet).5–9
- 7Ramos doubled to right, Devers scored and Yastrzemski scored.5–8
- 7Schmitt scored on error, Yastrzemski safe at first on fielding error by second baseman González.5–6
- 7Fitzgerald hit sacrifice bunt to catcher, Adames scored, Schmitt to third.5–5
- 6Rafaela homered to left (367 feet).5–4
- 5Yastrzemski homered to right (352 feet).4–4
- 5Schmitt homered to left (352 feet).4–3
- 5González homered to left center (398 feet).4–2
- 5Refsnyder homered to center (408 feet), Eaton scored.3–2
- 3Ramos singled to left, Bailey scored and Schmitt scored, Devers thrown out at third.1–2
- 1Anthony to home on error, Duran to first on fielding error by left fielder Ramos, Duran to second on error, Narváez to third on error.1–0
- 1Anthony to home on error, Duran to first on fielding error by left fielder Ramos, Duran to second on error, Narváez to third on error.1–0
- 1Anthony to home on error, Duran to first on fielding error by left fielder Ramos, Duran to second on error, Narváez to third on error.1–0
- 1Anthony to home on error, Duran to first on fielding error by left fielder Ramos, Duran to second on error, Narváez to third on error.1–0
- 1Anthony to home on error, Duran to first on fielding error by left fielder Ramos, Duran to second on error, Narváez to third on error.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 59%
- ML BOS +135 / SF -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- SF: Elo 55.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -145
- BOS +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.3 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +7 | BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +36 Elo | SF 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 24–147th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–37 | 33–44 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–26 | 12–34 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 36–42 | 36–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–4 SF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.