San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benson singled to right, Lux scored, Trevino to second, Steer to third.2–3
- 9Steer singled to center, De La Cruz scored, Lux to second.2–2
- 7Iglesias grounded into fielder's choice to second, Tatis Jr. scored, Sheets out at second, Bogaerts to third.2–1
- 6De La Cruz singled to left, Benson scored, McLain to second.1–1
- 4Bogaerts homered to left center (389 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML SD +110 / CIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 50.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- SD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −5 | SD: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +2 Elo | CIN 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 19th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 23–1916th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 9th of 301525 | Elo rating | 150616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–36 | 46–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 14–24 |
| Underdog | 26–13 | 31–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–47 | 36–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 8–6 CIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.