San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sheets homered to right center (422 feet), Merrill scored and Bogaerts scored.6–4
- 6Cronenworth homered to right center (403 feet), Iglesias scored.3–4
- 5Stephenson hit sacrifice fly to center, Steer scored, Lux to third.1–4
- 5Arraez homered to right (402 feet).1–3
- 2McLain singled to center, Espinal scored, Friedl to second.0–3
- 2Friedl singled to center, Hinds scored, Espinal to third.0–2
- 1Lux singled to left, McLain scored, Steer to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 58%
- ML SD +130 / CIN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 52.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -140
- SD +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +10 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +18 Elo | CIN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 3019–23 | Road vs home | 23–1816th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 10th of 301524 | Elo rating | 150816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–36 | 46–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 14–23 |
| Underdog | 25–13 | 31–13 |
| Overs–unders | 34–47 | 35–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–6 CIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.