Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Richard FittsPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Angels- Travis d'ArnaudBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 6Trout singled to right, Rengifo scored, Kingery to third.2–5
- 5d'Arnaud singled to left, Trout scored, Adell to third.2–4
- 5Adell singled to center, Moore scored, Trout to second.2–3
- 4d'Arnaud homered to right center (394 feet).2–2
- 4Adell homered to left center (433 feet).2–1
- 1Story singled to left, Duran scored and González scored, Abreu to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 52%
- ML BOS +100 / LAA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- LAA: Elo 47.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −2 | BOS: Richard Fitts: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +17 Elo | BOS 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 21st of 3018–24 | Road vs home | 18–1822nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Elo rating | 145825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–40 | 40–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–28 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 24–12 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 38–43 | 42–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–10 LAA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.