Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Carlos NarvaezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5González doubled to left, Sogard scored.5–3
- 5Lukes singled to left, Bichette scored, Springer to second.5–2
- 4Heineman walked, Clement scored, Clase to second, Giménez to third.4–2
- 4Giménez singled to right, Lukes scored, Clement to third.3–2
- 2Rafaela doubled to left, Story scored.2–2
- 2Narváez homered to right (337 feet).2–1
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (387 feet).2–0
- 1Barger homered to right (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML TOR -110 / BOS -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.8 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −8 | TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +3 Elo | BOS 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 19th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 23–1816th of 30 |
| 5th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Elo rating | 149818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–34 | 42–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–18 | 17–29 |
| Underdog | 28–16 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 46–36 | 40–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 17–18 BOS in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 35.