Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-4
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kirk singled to left, Barger scored, Clement scored and Clase scored on throwing error by left fielder Kwan.6–0
- 3Straw to home on fielding error by first baseman Manzardo, Lukes to second on throwing error by first baseman Manzardo.3–0
- 3Straw to home on fielding error by first baseman Manzardo, Lukes to second on throwing error by first baseman Manzardo.3–0
- 3Straw to home on fielding error by first baseman Manzardo, Lukes to second on throwing error by first baseman Manzardo.3–0
- 3Lukes singled to right, Clase scored and Heineman scored, Straw to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML TOR +110 / CLE -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.6 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +6 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +34 Elo | CLE 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 20–1616th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–33 | 37–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 11–20 |
| Underdog | 26–16 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 44–35 | 35–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–11 CLE in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.