Cleveland Guardians at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching8.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urías singled to center, Soderstrom scored.1–5
- 8Martínez homered to left center (390 feet).1–4
- 7Wilson singled to left, Clarke scored, Butler to second. Wilson to second, Butler safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Kwan.0–4
- 2Butler singled to right, Soderstrom scored, Wynns to second, Urías to third.0–3
- 1Kurtz homered to left center (406 feet), Rooker scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML CLE -125 / ATH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- ATH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.9 – 4.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +8 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +49 Elo | CLE 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 14–2529th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 143828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–38 | 38–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–18 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 25–20 | 31–27 |
| Overs–unders | 33–40 | 46–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 11–2 ATH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.
