Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Spencer TurnbullPitching2.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bichette singled to left, Heineman scored.7–1
- 3Rojas doubled to right, Slater scored and Sosa scored.7–0
- 3Robert Jr. homered to left (441 feet), Vargas scored.5–0
- 2Benintendi singled to right, Slater scored, Meidroth to second, Rojas thrown out at home.3–0
- 2Slater singled to center, Sosa scored.2–0
- 1Benintendi homered to right (425 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML CHW +170 / TOR -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 66.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -181
- CHW +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | CHW: Grant Taylor (no track record yet) · TOR: Spencer Turnbull: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +117 Elo | TOR 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 307–31 | Road vs home | 24–149th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15084th of 30 |
| 29th of 301409 | Elo rating | 150020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–31 | 43–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 18–15 |
| Underdog | 44–30 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–38 | 42–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–11 TOR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.