Arizona Diamondbacks at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kirk singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.9–5
- 8Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Barger scored on error, Guerrero Jr. safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Gurriel Jr..9–4
- 8Clase homered to right (408 feet).9–3
- 7Kirk homered to right (363 feet).9–2
- 6Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Perdomo scored, Marte to third.9–1
- 6Marte doubled to left, Herrera scored, Perdomo to third.8–1
- 5Grichuk hit sacrifice fly to left, Naylor scored.7–1
- 5Smith homered to center (415 feet), Marte scored.6–1
- 3Suárez doubled to center, Smith scored and Marte scored.4–1
- 2Kirk homered to right center (399 feet).2–1
- 2Suárez homered to right center (395 feet), Naylor scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML ARI +135 / TOR -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -145
- ARI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +1 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +2 Elo | ARI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 24–136th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 12th of 301515 | Elo rating | 150219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–35 | 43–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 18–14 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–35 | 41–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 2–6 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.