Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Max KeplerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kepler homered to right (370 feet).2–3
- 5Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Bichette scored.2–2
- 4Kemp hit by pitch, Kepler scored, Stott to second, Realmuto to third.1–2
- 4Stott walked, Castellanos scored, Realmuto to second, Kepler to third.1–1
- 2Straw singled to left, Clement scored, Straw to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML TOR +135 / PHI -160
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- TOR +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +10 | TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +62 Elo | PHI 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.67th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 22–139th of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 20th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15307th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–28 | 33–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–13 | 25–30 |
| Underdog | 24–15 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 38–31 | 32–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–8 PHI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.