Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Max KeplerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mick AbelPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki singled to left, Happ scored, Tucker to second.8–4
- 8Tucker singled to right, McGuire scored, Happ to second.7–4
- 8McGuire doubled to center, Hoerner scored.6–4
- 6Happ homered to right (361 feet), McGuire scored.5–4
- 5Bohm singled to center, Marsh scored and Turner scored, Bohm to second.3–4
- 4Busch homered to center (442 feet).3–2
- 3Happ homered to right (384 feet).2–2
- 2Kepler homered to right center (373 feet), Realmuto scored.1–2
- 2Swanson homered to center (418 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 50%
- ML CHC -110 / PHI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -100
- CHC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +13 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Mick Abel: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +24 Elo | PHI 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 20–1212th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149128th of 30 |
| 4th of 301546 | Elo rating | 15279th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–32 | 31–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–19 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 10–13 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 37–29 | 29–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–12 PHI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.