Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11Marsh singled to center, Realmuto scored, Kemp to second, Stott to third.3–4
- 11Realmuto singled to right, Castellanos scored.3–3
- 11Crow-Armstrong doubled to right, Tucker scored.3–2
- 8Happ homered to left (424 feet).2–2
- 5Wilson singled to right, Kemp scored.1–2
- 4Realmuto grounded into fielder's choice to third, Schwarber scored, Castellanos out at second, Bohm to third.1–1
- 1Tucker homered to right (387 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML CHC +110 / PHI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.6 – 3.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +3 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +4 Elo | CHC 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 19–1212th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 4th of 301547 | Elo rating | 15269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–32 | 31–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–19 | 23–28 |
| Underdog | 9–13 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 37–28 | 29–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–11 PHI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.