Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tucker grounded out to first, Happ scored.2–7
- 7Bohm homered to left center (367 feet).1–7
- 4Bohm singled to center, Kemp scored and Turner scored.1–6
- 4Hoerner doubled to left, Kelly scored.1–4
- 3Schwarber homered to right center (431 feet).0–4
- 1Realmuto reached on infield single to second, Kepler scored.0–3
- 1Kepler doubled to center, Schwarber scored.0–2
- 1Bohm grounded out to third, Turner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML CHC -105 / PHI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 47.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −22 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +20 Elo | CHC 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 20–1312th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 4th of 301549 | Elo rating | 15249th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–32 | 31–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–19 | 23–30 |
| Underdog | 11–13 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 38–29 | 30–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–12 PHI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.