Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-4
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner singled to left, Stott scored.0–8
- 8Marsh hit sacrifice fly to center, Realmuto scored.0–7
- 8Realmuto doubled to left, Kepler scored.0–6
- 6Kemp singled to right, Realmuto scored, Stott to second.0–5
- 2Schwarber homered to center (410 feet), Marsh scored and Turner scored.0–4
- 2Marsh doubled to center, Realmuto scored, Marsh to third, Kemp thrown out at home.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 50%
- ML TOR -110 / PHI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 3.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +5 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +39 Elo | PHI 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.319th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 21–1311th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 16th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15279th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–27 | 32–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–13 | 24–30 |
| Underdog | 24–14 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 37–31 | 31–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–7 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.