Arizona Diamondbacks at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Roden scored, Barger to second.1–8
- 7Bichette grounded out to pitcher, Giménez scored, Roden to second.1–7
- 7Heineman hit sacrifice fly to center, Clement scored, Giménez to third.1–6
- 6Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Barger scored and Bichette scored.1–5
- 6Barger doubled to right, Roden scored, Bichette to third.1–3
- 6Gurriel Jr. grounded out to third, Carroll scored.1–2
- 3Springer reached first base on catcher's interference, Heineman scored, Guerrero Jr. to second, Barger to third.0–2
- 1Bichette homered to center (418 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML ARI -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- ARI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +3 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +13 Elo | TOR 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 23–138th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 30 |
| 12th of 301518 | Elo rating | 149920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–34 | 42–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 17–14 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–35 | 40–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 2–5 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.