Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting3-4
- Jose BerriosPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Schwarber grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kemp scored, Turner out at second, Marsh to third.4–11
- 7Bichette singled to right, Roden scored, Robertson to third.4–10
- 7Robertson singled to right, Clement scored, Roden to third.3–10
- 6Castellanos homered to left center (385 feet), Kemp scored, Schwarber scored and Bohm scored.2–10
- 5Bohm homered to left (433 feet), Schwarber scored.2–6
- 5Clase reached on infield single to pitcher, Clement scored on throwing error by pitcher Wheeler.2–4
- 5Roden hit sacrifice fly to center, Giménez scored.1–4
- 4Kemp singled to left, Kepler scored and Realmuto scored.0–4
- 3Bohm singled to right, Kemp scored, Schwarber to third.0–2
- 1Schwarber singled to center, Turner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML TOR +145 / PHI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -156
- TOR +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 3.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +48 Elo | PHI 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.217th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 23–137th of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 20th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–28 | 33–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–13 | 25–31 |
| Underdog | 25–15 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 38–32 | 32–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–9 PHI in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.