Arizona Diamondbacks at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Josh NaylorBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Barger homered to right (408 feet).4–5
- 9Bichette homered to left center (399 feet).4–4
- 7Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Bichette scored.4–3
- 7Suárez singled to center, Marte scored, Perdomo to second.4–2
- 5Naylor doubled to left, Marte scored.3–2
- 5Marte singled to right, Carroll scored on throwing error by right fielder Barger, Marte to second.2–2
- 4Smith singled to center, Naylor scored, Suárez to third.1–2
- 3Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (448 feet).0–2
- 1Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Barger scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML ARI +105 / TOR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −9 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +4 Elo | ARI 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 22–1310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 30 |
| 11th of 301519 | Elo rating | 149821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–34 | 42–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 17–13 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 36–35 | 39–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 2–4 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.