Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vargas doubled to left, M. Taylor scored and Meidroth scored, Benintendi to third.4–2
- 8Slater scored, Benintendi safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Hoffman, Meidroth to second, M. Taylor to third.2–2
- 7Bichette singled to center, Roden scored.1–2
- 5Bichette singled to center, Straw scored, Roden to second.1–1
- 4Robert Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Meidroth scored, Teel out at second, Vargas to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML CHW +170 / TOR -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 62.4%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -181
- CHW +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −8 | CHW: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +88 Elo | TOR 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 65.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 30th of 308–32 | Road vs home | 25–1510th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 29th of 301411 | Elo rating | 149819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–32 | 44–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 19–16 |
| Underdog | 45–31 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–40 | 42–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–12 TOR in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.