Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Ryan NodaBatting1-3
- Aaron CivalePitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schneider doubled to left, Clement scored and Springer scored.1–7
- 7Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (380 feet).1–5
- 6Benintendi grounded into fielder's choice to first, Vargas scored on throwing error by first baseman Guerrero Jr..1–4
- 2Lukes singled to right, Schneider scored, Straw to second.0–4
- 2Schneider singled to left, Clement scored.0–3
- 2Clement singled to right, Springer scored on throwing error by right fielder Slater, Clement to third.0–2
- 1Bichette homered to center (410 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 63%
- ML CHW +160 / TOR -190
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 62.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -170
- CHW +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | CHW: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +92 Elo | TOR 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 30th of 308–31 | Road vs home | 24–1510th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 30 |
| 29th of 301413 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–31 | 43–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 18–16 |
| Underdog | 45–30 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–39 | 42–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–11 TOR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.